4 quarterbacks who could emerge as this year's Baker Mayfield

Few could have predicted former No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield would experience a career renaissance with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers when he signed a one-year, $4M contract last offseason. 

Mayfield, who bounced around among three teams in two seasons before signing with Tampa Bay, exceeded all expectations serving as Tom Brady's successor in 2023. Aside from setting career highs across multiple passing categories, Mayfield led the Bucs to the NFC South title and the divisional round of the playoffs, earning himself a three-year, $100M extension this offseason. 

The success Mayfield achieved is rare for someone playing on a prove-it deal, let alone a quarterback with his resume. Even so, several QBs at similar career crossroads signed deals this offseason that could potentially allow them to enjoy a turnaround like Mayfield's.    

With that in mind, here are four quarterbacks who could have a similar impact on their new teams in 2024, ranked from least to most likely.

Drew Lock | New York Giants  

Although Lock has denied Seahawks GM John Schneider's comments that he's being brought in to compete for New York's starting job, the former second-round pick could hold the position by the end of the season.

The Giants may decide to draft their long-term starter in April's NFL Draft and cut ties with Daniel Jones after the 2024 season. Jones should open the season as the starter, but if it's clear New York won't make the playoffs, the team could bench him as Denver did with Russell Wilson to avoid the risk of triggering his $23M injury guarantee for 2025. 

Such a scenario could allow Lock to finish 2024 as a starter, provided the Giants redshirt their potential rookie. Should Lock cut down on the turnovers and perhaps string a few wins together, he may play his way into securing a better opportunity, in New York or elsewhere, for 2025.

Gardner Minshew II | Las Vegas Raiders 

Unlike Mayfield's situation, Minshew won't be playing for a new deal this season as he signed a two-year, $25M contract with Las Vegas in free agency. However, with an underrated supporting cast on offense and the recent upgrades to what was already a formidable defense, Minshew's addition could produce Mayfield-esque results in the win column for Las Vegas, which finished 8-9 last season. 

Last season, Minshew started 13 games for the Indianapolis Colts, helping them become the NFL's 10th-best scoring offense (23.3 points per game) and remain in playoff contention entering Week 18. Minshew won't light up the stat sheet like he did early in his career, but if the Raiders get 2023's version of him, they'll be thrilled. And if their defense performs as expected, HC Antonio Pierce's team could capitalize on the rebuilds of the Broncos and Chargers to make a surprise postseason appearance.

Sam Darnold | Minnesota Vikings 

Darnold, the third overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, will replace now-Falcon Kirk Cousins as Minnesota's starting quarterback after spending last season as San Francisco's primary backup.

While Darnold is a downgrade from Cousins, he'll play with as talented a receiving corps as he has had as a starter, and it's reasonable to be optimistic about his potential in HC Kevin O'Connell's system. After all, Joshua Dobbs delivered a stretch of serviceable quarterbacking following his midseason trade from Arizona in 2023, and Nick Mullens averaged 370 passing yards per game across three starts.

The Vikings will surely try to add to their quarterback room through the draft, but depending on who they select, it's possible Darnold can hold the starting job throughout the season. As long as he does, Darnold should have the passing stats to convince another team he can be their bridge quarterback.   

Russell Wilson | Pittsburgh Steelers  

It wouldn't be anything near the extent of Mayfield's contract, but Wilson is the most realistic candidate on this list who could garner a multi-year deal with a strong season. Of course, that's assuming the nine-time Pro Bowler beats out Justin Fields for the starting job; the expectation is Wilson is the starter, per NFL Network's Tom Pelissero.

Wilson's addition has surprisingly been met with some backlash, partly due to his disappointing Broncos tenure and now also because Fields is joining the Steelers. Still, the fact remains that Pittsburgh was already a 10-win team despite having a flawed offensive system for the majority of 2023 and three quarterbacks who were worse than Wilson.

Last season, Wilson improved in nearly every major passing category compared to 2022, throwing for 3,070 yards, 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions while posting a 66.4 percent completion rate across 15 games. If he can replicate those stats and lead the Steelers back to the postseason, Wilson could ultimately establish himself as their starting quarterback for the foreseeable future.