ESPN's 'Best Fit' for Colts in Free Agency Looks Familiar

The Indianapolis Colts have been busy locking down their top players with multi-year deals during free agency. However, there is at least one player still on the open market without a deal: safety Julian Blackmon. 

ESPN's Bill Barnwell played matchmaker this week in his column, finding the best fit for the top-remaining free agents. 

Blackmon qualifies, and Barnwell wrote on ESPN+ that his best fit would be with the... Indianapolis Colts.

Barnwell wrote nearly 350 words on Blackmon alone, and he started with why he's still available.

"The large number of safeties available has undoubtedly impacted the market for Blackmon," wrote Barnwell. "More often a box defender than a center fielder a year ago, the 25-year-old played in a Gus Bradley Seahawks-style scheme that is less popular leaguewide than it was a decade ago, when Pete Carroll disciples were taking the league by storm. The Colts played zone at the third-highest rate in the league and two-deep at the eighth-lowest rate, leaving their safeties on an island as a single-high zone defense in a league that has moved to more two-high. Injuries are also a concern for Blackmon, who is yet to play a full season as a pro."

Despite scheme concerns, Blackmon was solid in coverage. Pro Football Focus (PFF) gave him a 72.6 coverage grade last year, making him 25th overall in the NFL. That makes him better than the average NFL safety.

Still just 25-years old, Barnwell points to Blackmon's youth as a factor on his side as well as his production a year ago.

"He's also coming off a career season," wrote Barnwell. "He stuffed the stat sheet in 2023, setting career highs in interceptions (four), passes defensed (eight) and tackles for loss (five). Blackmon's speed and quickness is still there after the injuries, and while safety coverage stats can be misleading, he allowed a 46.6 passer rating in coverage last season, which is good no matter how you slice the data. He also missed just 4.3% of his tackles after whiffing on double-digit rates in each of his prior three seasons."

Blackmon is young, coming off his best season, and played for a team that typically re-signs their own players. Best fit for him? Yep, you guessed it, the Indianapolis Colts.

"General manager Chris Ballard typically loves to draft, develop and re-sign homegrown talent, and we've already seen Indy give Michael Pittman Jr., Grover Stewart and Zaire Franklin new pacts this offseason," wrote Barnwell. "Blackmon is probably looking at a one-year prove-it deal in the $4 million range to show that 2023 wasn't a fluke."

$4 million sounds like spare change in today's hyper-inflated market where a player like Jerry Jeudy gets signed for $20 million per season after being dumped by his former team for a fifth-round pick. 

However, what goes up, must come down. With wide receivers and quarterbacks breaking the bank, $4 million for a safety ranks 29th, above average for a starter, in the NFL according to Spotrac.

The safety market is flooded with veteran safeties. The Colts still have over $23 million in cap space. Testing the market and re-signing with Indianapolis might make a lot of sense for both parties as Barnwell points out.